Jack Mahoney
English 122
Professor Drown
11/4/19
Being a teenager myself, we are forced to make decisions that have an effect on our future, even our lives in some cases. Along with this, confidence in these situations will allow the decision process to become easier so there is no room for second guessing an opportunity at hand. However, when making these choices it is important to not be over confident and make correct judgements that will have no negative effect on the individual. Kahneman states, “The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right.” The writer believes that although you may feel confident in a judgement you are making, that does not mean that it is the correct judgement to be making. I agree with this statement because I can recall many times in my life fully believing in a judgement I was making, and having it completely blow up in my face. Having over confidence in these situations also can lead to others doubting your story if your judgements have been incorrect before. Kahneman states, “Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.” The writer believes that with overconfidence comes bias and a feeling of uncertainty with judgements that may not have evidence to back up, and I couldn’t agree more.
Pretty good overview Jack. A couple of things to think about when you rework this to include it in your paper. The lead in to this quote (Kahneman states, “The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right.”) doesn’t give enough context about the particular kinds of situations K is writing about to be quite accurate. So give more of the original context for the quote. Second, as you conclude this chunk, you’ll need to transition your reader to body of the paper, which is going to be about the kinds of everyday situations that result in bad judgments and how we can improve the judgments we make. You’ll probably need to add about 3 or 4 sentences or more to do that.